Body mass index, that is, BMI= weight (in kilograms) divided by height (in meters) square, commonly used to measure the degree of obesity and health, normal values between 18.5 and 24. Researchers at University College London have developed a formula to calculate the risk of obesity, published in the Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology.

The study included data from 400 primary care trials in the UK, involving more than 2 million participants aged 18 to 74, and more than 9 million BMI and weight records between 1998 and 2016. After calculating longitudinal changes in BMI at one, five and 10 years, it was found that adults in the youngest group (18 to 24 years) had the highest odds and risk of moving from normal weight to overweight or obesity after 10 years, compared with the largest age group (65 to 74 years). For example, men aged 18-24 had an average starting weight of 80.8 kg and an estimated average weight of 90.2 kg after 10 years, while men aged 65-74 had an average starting weight of 83.9 kg and 82.2 kg after 10 years. According to the calculation formula, the probability of future obesity can be inferred from known BMI, for example, the 10-year risk of obesity for Asian women with a body mass index of 24 (weight 67-68 kg, height 1.68 m) varies greatly by age: The risk for 18 to 24, 25 to 34, 35 to 44, 45 to 54, 55 to 64, and 65 to 74 years of age was 58%, 57%, 58%, 53%, 48%, and 37%, respectively.

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